Macro Regime Dashboard

Convergence: …

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Research tool only — not investment advice. Data + news reads are independent; convergence shows when they agree.

Dalio Macro Quadrant
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Reading today's growth × inflation regime…
→ Growth → Inflation
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Current Regime Read
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MOVE / VIX Ratio
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Reading…
Overview
Early Warning
Rates & Curve
Regime Analysis
Liquidity
Credit
Triggers
Today's News Read
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MOVE (Treasury Vol)
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— Threshold: 90 = stress
What this is: The "VIX for bonds." Measures how much US Treasury prices are expected to swing in the next 30 days.
Why we care: A rising MOVE means bond markets are getting nervous — usually the first sign of stress before it shows in stocks.
VIX (Equity Vol)
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— Threshold: 25 = elevated
What this is: The "fear gauge" for the S&P 500. Wall Street's bet on how much stocks will swing.
Why we care: When VIX is low and MOVE is high, the bond market is screaming while stocks sleep. That almost always resolves.
10Y Treasury Yield
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— Post-GFC avg: 4.25%
What this is: The interest rate the US government pays to borrow for 10 years. The most-watched number in finance.
Why we care: When 10Y goes above its long-term average (4.25%), it means markets are demanding more yield — usually a sign the Fed is too tight.
Bitcoin (BTC-USD)
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— Global liquidity barometer
What this is: The price of one Bitcoin, the largest crypto.
Why we care: BTC often tracks global liquidity. Fed easing tends to support crypto; tightening pressures it.
2s10s Curve
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What this is: The difference between 2Y and 10Y Treasury yields (Treasury.gov when available).
Why we care: Positive often signals expansion expectations; inverted has historically preceded recessions.
30Y Yield
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Regime change level: 5%
What this is: The rate the US government pays to borrow for 30 years. The longest-duration mainstream Treasury.
Why we care: 30Y crossing 5% is the "regime change is real" signal — it means long-term lenders are demanding materially more yield, which hits mortgages and stocks.
TLT (20+Y Treasury ETF)
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Long-duration trade vehicle
What this is: An ETF that holds 20+ year US Treasuries. Its price moves opposite to long-term yields.
Why we care: TLT price moves opposite to long-term yields — a gauge of duration risk.
DXY (Dollar Index)
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What this is: The value of the US dollar against a basket of major currencies (EUR, JPY, GBP, etc.).
Why we care: When the Fed tightens, the dollar strengthens. A strong dollar tightens financial conditions globally — bad for emerging markets, crypto, and commodities.
Brent Crude Oil (Inflation Context)
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What this is: Spot price of Brent crude, the global benchmark. Daily, in $/barrel.
Why we care: Oil feeds directly into CPI energy and indirectly into transportation/food costs. A falling oil price is disinflationary (less pressure on the Fed); a rising price is the opposite. Useful for sanity-checking the Fed's inflation narrative.

MOVE Index — Treasury Volatility Regime (1Y)

Implied 30-day vol on US Treasuries. 90 = stress. 115 = acute. 150+ = crisis.

How to read this chart: Daily MOVE over the past year. Spikes above 90 indicate bond-market stress; readings below 75 indicate compressed vol.

Dalio Four-Quadrant Map

From Ray Dalio's All Weather framework: every macro regime can be classified by whether growth and inflation are rising or falling. Each quadrant behaves differently across asset classes — knowing which one we're in is the key organizing principle for portfolio positioning. The colored dot shows today's pick from the LLM.

Q1 Goldilocks
Stocks ↑ · Bonds OK · Crypto ↑ · Commodities quiet
Q2 Reflation
Everything ↑ · Crypto parabolic · Watch for top
Q3 Stagflation
Stocks ↓ · Bonds ↓ · Oil ↑ · Cash wins (2022)
Q4 Risk-off
Everything ↓ · Vol explodes · Fed rides in